September 8, 2023
UFC Middleweight Title Bout
Title Fight
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 407 | 1 314 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Sean Strickland's 4-fight experience advantage (20 vs 16 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sean Strickland for the expected result. Had Israel Adesanya pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 349 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +100 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Sean Strickland captured the UFC Middleweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 611 | 1 502 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +68 |
Sean Strickland earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 94 | 137 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 271 | 259 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 94 | 137 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 633 | 1 450 |
| ELO Change | -115 | +115 |
Sean Strickland controlled the striking exchanges with 137 vs 94 total strikes, 137 vs 94 significant strikes, 52.9% vs 34.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Sean Strickland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 291 | 1 394 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Sean Strickland landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 451 | 1 491 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +73 |
Sean Strickland demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Sean Strickland capitalized on this activity level, while Israel Adesanya's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 387 | 1 267 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +41 |
Sean Strickland extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Israel Adesanya is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Israel Adesanya | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 188 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.