April 15, 2022
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Istela Nunes | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 933 | 962 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Sam Hughes's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sam Hughes for the expected result. Had Istela Nunes pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Istela Nunes | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 956 | 967 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Istela Nunes | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 946 | 928 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Sam Hughes earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Istela Nunes | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 89 | 76 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 228 | 182 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 151 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 948 | 937 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Sam Hughes dominated the striking exchanges with 151 vs 90 total strikes, 76 vs 89 significant strikes. Sam Hughes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Istela Nunes | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 3:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 790 | 943 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +75 |
Sam Hughes controlled Istela Nunes on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:26 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Istela Nunes | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 956 | 993 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +46 |
Sam Hughes demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Sam Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Istela Nunes's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Istela Nunes | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 956 | 971 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Sam Hughes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Istela Nunes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Istela Nunes | Sam Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 956 | 967 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.