May 10, 2025
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ivan Erslan | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 952 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +23 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Ivan Erslan | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ivan Erslan | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Navajo Stirling earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ivan Erslan | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 110 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 100 | 225 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 63 | 124 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 920 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Navajo Stirling dominated the striking exchanges with 124 vs 63 total strikes, 110 vs 36 significant strikes, 48.9% vs 36.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Navajo Stirling capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ivan Erslan | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:41 | 3:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 23 |
| Ground ELO | 898 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Navajo Stirling controlled Ivan Erslan on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 3:01 of control time, 23 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ivan Erslan | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 224 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 966 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +38 |
Navajo Stirling demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Navajo Stirling capitalized on this activity level, while Ivan Erslan's 224-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ivan Erslan | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 960 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Navajo Stirling extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ivan Erslan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ivan Erslan | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.