July 17, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ivan Jorge | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 012 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +34 |
Joe Duffy overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 4 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Ivan Jorge.
| Metric | Ivan Jorge | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 995 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ivan Jorge | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:05 | 3:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 997 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +61 |
Joe Duffy earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:05, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Ivan Jorge | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 15 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 999 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Ivan Jorge controlled the striking through superior accuracy (46.7% vs 27.6%). However, since Ivan Jorge lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Joe Duffy's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ivan Jorge | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:09 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 981 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Joe Duffy edged out Ivan Jorge on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ivan Jorge | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 146 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 994 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +42 |
Joe Duffy demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Duffy capitalized on this activity level, while Ivan Jorge's 146-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ivan Jorge | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 999 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Joe Duffy extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ivan Jorge is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ivan Jorge | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 995 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.