June 18, 2004
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ivan Menjivar | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Matt Serra's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Serra for the expected result. Had Ivan Menjivar pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ivan Menjivar | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ivan Menjivar | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 967 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Matt Serra earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ivan Menjivar | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 970 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Matt Serra slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 14 vs 8 significant strikes, 35.0% vs 50.0% accuracy. Matt Serra capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ivan Menjivar | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 13:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 944 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Matt Serra dominated Ivan Menjivar on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 13:18 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ivan Menjivar | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +37 |
Matt Serra demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Serra capitalized on this activity level, while Ivan Menjivar's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ivan Menjivar | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Matt Serra extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ivan Menjivar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ivan Menjivar | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.