June 30, 2023
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ivana Petrovic | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Luana Carolina's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Luana Carolina for the expected result. Had Ivana Petrovic pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ivana Petrovic | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ivana Petrovic | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 957 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Luana Carolina earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ivana Petrovic | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 87 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 112 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 959 | 976 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Luana Carolina controlled the striking exchanges with 112 vs 77 total strikes, 41 vs 22 significant strikes, 47.1% vs 35.5% accuracy. Luana Carolina capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ivana Petrovic | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:11 | 5:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 933 | 916 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Luana Carolina edged out Ivana Petrovic on the ground with 1 takedown, 5:45 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ivana Petrovic | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +50 |
Luana Carolina demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Luana Carolina capitalized on this activity level, while Ivana Petrovic's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ivana Petrovic | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Luana Carolina started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ivana Petrovic is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ivana Petrovic | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.