October 11, 2019
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | JJ Aldrich | Lauren Mueller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 064 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
JJ Aldrich's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding JJ Aldrich for the expected result. Had Lauren Mueller pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | JJ Aldrich | Lauren Mueller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | JJ Aldrich | Lauren Mueller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 084 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
JJ Aldrich earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | JJ Aldrich | Lauren Mueller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 74 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 160 | 147 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 005 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
JJ Aldrich controlled the striking exchanges with 74 vs 54 significant strikes, 46.3% vs 36.7% accuracy. JJ Aldrich capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | JJ Aldrich | Lauren Mueller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:52 | 0:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 044 | 884 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
JJ Aldrich slightly outworked Lauren Mueller on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:52 of control time, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | JJ Aldrich | Lauren Mueller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 063 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
JJ Aldrich demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, JJ Aldrich capitalized on this activity level, while Lauren Mueller's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | JJ Aldrich | Lauren Mueller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 054 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
JJ Aldrich started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lauren Mueller is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | JJ Aldrich | Lauren Mueller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.