November 15, 2019
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 251 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +45 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (14 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 101 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 584 | 1 435 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jan Blachowicz receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 71 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 48 | 170 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 105 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 425 | 1 428 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Jan Blachowicz controlled the striking exchanges with 105 vs 56 total strikes, 71 vs 20 significant strikes. Jan Blachowicz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:25 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 375 | 1 356 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Jan Blachowicz did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jacare Souza on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 246 | 1 292 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +44 |
Jan Blachowicz demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jan Blachowicz capitalized on this activity level, while Jacare Souza's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 153 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +30 |
Jan Blachowicz extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jacare Souza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 089 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

