Jacare Souza vs Kelvin Gastelum

May 11, 2018

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1305
(-27)
Jacare Souza
Winner: Kelvin Gastelum
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Jacare Souza-27
Kelvin Gastelum+29
1332
(+29)
Kelvin Gastelum

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Jacare Souza: -32Kelvin Gastelum: +32

Performance Statistics

MetricJacare SouzaKelvin Gastelum
Total UFC Fights1114
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO1 2941 348
ELO Change-32+32
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum's 3-fight experience advantage (14 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kelvin Gastelum for the expected result. Had Jacare Souza pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Jacare Souza: -21Kelvin Gastelum: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricJacare SouzaKelvin Gastelum
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1181 167
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Jacare Souza: -12Kelvin Gastelum: +12

Performance Statistics

MetricJacare SouzaKelvin Gastelum
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 5771 558
ELO Change-12+12
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Kelvin Gastelum receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Jacare Souza: -55Kelvin Gastelum: +55

Performance Statistics

MetricJacare SouzaKelvin Gastelum
Significant Strikes Landed6453
Significant Strikes Attempted115145
Total Strikes Landed7857
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 4551 550
ELO Change-55+55
💡

What Happened

Jacare Souza controlled the striking through superior volume (78 vs 57 total strikes), significant strike advantage (64 vs 53), superior accuracy (55.7% vs 36.6%). However, since Jacare Souza lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Kelvin Gastelum's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Jacare Souza: -33Kelvin Gastelum: +33

Performance Statistics

MetricJacare SouzaKelvin Gastelum
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted90
Ground Control Time3:280:35
Ground Strikes Landed143
Ground ELO1 4691 312
ELO Change-33+33
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum landed 1 knockdown followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Jacare Souza: -18Kelvin Gastelum: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricJacare SouzaKelvin Gastelum
Days Since Last Fight105168
Activity ELO1 2471 348
ELO Change-18+31
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this activity level, while Jacare Souza's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Jacare Souza: -20Kelvin Gastelum: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricJacare SouzaKelvin Gastelum
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO1 1691 223
ELO Change-20+24
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What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jacare Souza is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Jacare Souza: -21Kelvin Gastelum: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricJacare SouzaKelvin Gastelum
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1141 150
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.