May 11, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 294 | 1 348 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Kelvin Gastelum's 3-fight experience advantage (14 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kelvin Gastelum for the expected result. Had Jacare Souza pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 118 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 577 | 1 558 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Kelvin Gastelum receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 115 | 145 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 455 | 1 550 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Jacare Souza controlled the striking through superior volume (78 vs 57 total strikes), significant strike advantage (64 vs 53), superior accuracy (55.7% vs 36.6%). However, since Jacare Souza lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Kelvin Gastelum's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:28 | 0:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 469 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Kelvin Gastelum landed 1 knockdown followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 247 | 1 348 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +31 |
Kelvin Gastelum demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this activity level, while Jacare Souza's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 169 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Kelvin Gastelum extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jacare Souza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 114 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

