April 14, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 290 | 1 268 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Robert Whittaker's 2-fight experience advantage (11 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Robert Whittaker for the expected result. Had Jacare Souza pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 117 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:28 | 3:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 484 | 1 588 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +96 |
Robert Whittaker gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 55 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 36 | 110 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 389 | 1 641 |
| ELO Change | -138 | +138 |
Robert Whittaker controlled the striking exchanges with 57 vs 13 total strikes, 55 vs 9 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 25.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Robert Whittaker capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:49 | 0:25 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 471 | 1 384 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Robert Whittaker landed 1 knockdown followed by 14 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 242 | 1 285 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +45 |
Robert Whittaker demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Robert Whittaker capitalized on this activity level, while Jacare Souza's 63-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 165 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +57 |
Robert Whittaker continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Jacare Souza's now at 0.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Robert Whittaker |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 113 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.