December 11, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Yoel Romero |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 231 | 1 315 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (6 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Yoel Romero |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 092 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Yoel Romero |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 346 | 1 486 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Yoel Romero receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Yoel Romero |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 52 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 56 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 329 | 1 524 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Yoel Romero controlled the striking exchanges with 46 vs 30 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Yoel Romero capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Yoel Romero |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:33 | 1:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 22 |
| Ground ELO | 1 437 | 1 401 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Yoel Romero did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jacare Souza on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:58 of control time, 22 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Yoel Romero |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 188 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +33 |
Yoel Romero demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Yoel Romero capitalized on this activity level, while Jacare Souza's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Yoel Romero |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 137 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +51 |
Yoel Romero continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Jacare Souza's now at 0.
| Metric | Jacare Souza | Yoel Romero |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 092 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

