February 9, 2024
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Joe Pyfer |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 241 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Jack Hermansson's 13-fight experience advantage (17 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jack Hermansson for the expected result. Had Joe Pyfer pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Joe Pyfer |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 105 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Joe Pyfer |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 439 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Jack Hermansson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Joe Pyfer |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 121 | 92 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 235 | 250 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 188 | 95 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 292 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Jack Hermansson dominated the striking exchanges with 188 vs 95 total strikes, 121 vs 92 significant strikes, 51.5% vs 36.8% accuracy. Jack Hermansson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Joe Pyfer |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:08 | 0:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 361 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Jack Hermansson controlled Joe Pyfer on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:08 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Joe Pyfer |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 434 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 336 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
Jack Hermansson demonstrated extended layoff with 434 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Jack Hermansson capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Pyfer's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Joe Pyfer |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 144 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Jack Hermansson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Pyfer is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Joe Pyfer |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 103 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.