July 17, 2020
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 277 | 1 239 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -36 |
Jack Hermansson overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Kelvin Gastelum.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 110 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:18 | 1:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 509 | 1 431 |
| ELO Change | +95 | -50 |
Jack Hermansson earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:18, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 4 | 3 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 352 | 1 286 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 2 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 426 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Jack Hermansson edged out Kelvin Gastelum on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 294 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 1 365 | 1 282 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Jack Hermansson demonstrated standard activity with 294 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jack Hermansson capitalized on this activity level, while Kelvin Gastelum's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 149 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -24 |
Jack Hermansson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kelvin Gastelum is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 108 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.