October 27, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 071 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Thiago Santos's 7-fight experience advantage (12 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Jack Hermansson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:59 | 4:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 172 | 1 400 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +54 |
Thiago Santos earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:59, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 79 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 156 | 1 430 |
| ELO Change | -116 | +116 |
Thiago Santos controlled the striking exchanges with 29 vs 5 total strikes, 28 vs 5 significant strikes, 35.4% vs 17.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thiago Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:35 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 056 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Thiago Santos landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 075 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +41 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Jack Hermansson's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 033 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Thiago Santos extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jack Hermansson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jack Hermansson | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.