March 15, 2019
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jack Marshman | John Phillips |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 051 | 933 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Jack Marshman's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jack Marshman for the expected result. Had John Phillips pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | John Phillips |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 939 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | John Phillips |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 056 | 913 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jack Marshman receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | John Phillips |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 149 | 95 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 959 | 838 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
John Phillips controlled the striking through superior accuracy (33.7% vs 20.8%), 1 knockdown. However, since John Phillips lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jack Marshman's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | John Phillips |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 905 | 712 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Jack Marshman did not secure a significant ground advantage against John Phillips on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | John Phillips |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 047 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -18 |
Jack Marshman demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jack Marshman capitalized on this activity level, while John Phillips's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | John Phillips |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 013 | 939 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Jack Marshman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Phillips is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | John Phillips |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 004 | 939 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.