November 2, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 026 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +38 |
Karl Roberson overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jack Marshman.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 049 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Karl Roberson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 98 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 90 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 943 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Karl Roberson dominated the striking exchanges with 90 vs 30 total strikes, 34 vs 21 significant strikes, 47.9% vs 21.4% accuracy. Karl Roberson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 5:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 893 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Karl Roberson controlled Jack Marshman on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:06 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 372 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 011 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +39 |
Karl Roberson demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Karl Roberson capitalized on this activity level, while Jack Marshman's 372-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 992 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +24 |
Karl Roberson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jack Marshman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Karl Roberson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.