October 30, 2020
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 003 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Sean Strickland's 3-fight experience advantage (11 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sean Strickland for the expected result. Had Jack Marshman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 970 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 005 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Sean Strickland earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 48 | 106 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 252 | 227 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 106 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 896 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Sean Strickland dominated the striking exchanges with 106 vs 48 total strikes, 106 vs 48 significant strikes, 46.7% vs 19.0% accuracy. Sean Strickland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 848 | 1 235 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +4 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 484 | 736 |
| Activity ELO | 1 016 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +11 |
Sean Strickland demonstrated extended layoff with 736 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Sean Strickland capitalized on this activity level, while Jack Marshman's 484-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +18 |
Sean Strickland extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jack Marshman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Sean Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 970 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.