February 18, 2017
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 061 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Thiago Santos's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Jack Marshman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:21 | 2:21 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 103 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +61 |
Thiago Santos gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 041 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | -125 | +125 |
Thiago Santos controlled the striking exchanges with 32 vs 11 total strikes, 27 vs 6 significant strikes, 38.0% vs 13.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thiago Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 1:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 971 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Thiago Santos landed 1 knockdown followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 92 | 149 |
| Activity ELO | 1 009 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +33 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 149 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Jack Marshman's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 008 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Thiago Santos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jack Marshman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jack Marshman | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 004 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.