October 4, 2012
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jacob Volkmann | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 115 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Jacob Volkmann's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jacob Volkmann for the expected result. Had Shane Roller pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jacob Volkmann | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 064 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jacob Volkmann | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:38 | 2:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 148 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -36 |
Jacob Volkmann earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jacob Volkmann | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 132 | 896 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
Jacob Volkmann edged the striking exchanges with 8 vs 0 significant strikes, 32.0% vs 0.0% accuracy. Jacob Volkmann capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jacob Volkmann | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:24 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 217 | 871 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Jacob Volkmann dominated Shane Roller on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:24 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jacob Volkmann | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 132 | 90 |
| Activity ELO | 1 165 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -14 |
Jacob Volkmann demonstrated solid activity levels with 132 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jacob Volkmann capitalized on this activity level, while Shane Roller's 90-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jacob Volkmann | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 100 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -16 |
Jacob Volkmann started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shane Roller is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jacob Volkmann | Shane Roller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 064 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.