March 17, 2023
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jafel Filho | Muhammad Mokaev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 979 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Muhammad Mokaev's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Muhammad Mokaev for the expected result. Had Jafel Filho pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jafel Filho | Muhammad Mokaev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jafel Filho | Muhammad Mokaev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:32 | 4:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 978 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +33 |
Muhammad Mokaev earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:32, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jafel Filho was submitted.
| Metric | Jafel Filho | Muhammad Mokaev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 54 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 977 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Muhammad Mokaev edged the striking exchanges with 79 vs 54 total strikes, 16 vs 9 significant strikes, 53.3% vs 24.3% accuracy. Muhammad Mokaev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jafel Filho | Muhammad Mokaev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:50 | 8:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 917 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Muhammad Mokaev dominated Jafel Filho on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 8:15 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jafel Filho | Muhammad Mokaev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +30 |
Muhammad Mokaev demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Muhammad Mokaev capitalized on this activity level, while Jafel Filho's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jafel Filho | Muhammad Mokaev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +23 |
Muhammad Mokaev extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jafel Filho is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jafel Filho | Muhammad Mokaev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.