July 22, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 031 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -20 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 997 | 947 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 112 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Jai Herbert earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 62 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 84 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 998 | 912 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Jai Herbert edged the striking exchanges with 84 vs 55 total strikes, 36 vs 41 significant strikes, 56.3% vs 66.1% accuracy. Jai Herbert capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:57 | 3:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 989 | 861 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -55 |
Jai Herbert controlled Kyle Nelson on the ground with 5:57 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 679 |
| Activity ELO | 1 062 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -19 |
Jai Herbert demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jai Herbert capitalized on this activity level, while Kyle Nelson's 679-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Jai Herbert started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kyle Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 996 | 947 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.