June 25, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Renato Moicano's 9-fight experience advantage (11 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Renato Moicano for the expected result. Had Jai Herbert pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 970 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:34 | 4:34 |
| Win Type ELO | 971 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +31 |
Renato Moicano earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:34, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jai Herbert was submitted.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 910 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Renato Moicano controlled the striking exchanges with 61 vs 18 total strikes, 26 vs 7 significant strikes, 63.4% vs 28.0% accuracy. Renato Moicano capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 7:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 23 |
| Ground ELO | 882 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -94 | +94 |
Renato Moicano dominated Jai Herbert on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 7:35 of control time, 23 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 336 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +18 |
Renato Moicano demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Renato Moicano capitalized on this activity level, while Jai Herbert's 336-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 975 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +18 |
Renato Moicano started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jai Herbert is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jai Herbert | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 969 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

