February 1, 2025
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 234 | 1 325 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +39 |
Sergei Pavlovich overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 075 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 472 | 1 642 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Sergei Pavlovich earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 55 | 60 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 145 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 360 | 1 477 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Sergei Pavlovich dominated the striking exchanges with 145 vs 23 total strikes, 25 vs 17 significant strikes, 41.7% vs 30.9% accuracy. Sergei Pavlovich capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 6:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 098 | 1 280 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Sergei Pavlovich edged out Jairzinho Rozenstruik on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 6:17 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 225 |
| Activity ELO | 1 286 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +32 |
Sergei Pavlovich demonstrated standard activity with 225 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Sergei Pavlovich capitalized on this activity level, while Jairzinho Rozenstruik's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 122 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Sergei Pavlovich started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Sergei Pavlovich |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 071 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.