March 1, 2024
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Shamil Gaziev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 234 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik's 11-fight experience advantage (13 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jairzinho Rozenstruik for the expected result. Had Shamil Gaziev pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Shamil Gaziev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 078 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Shamil Gaziev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 4 | 4 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 494 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -10 |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 4, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Shamil Gaziev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 127 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 215 | 68 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 140 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 390 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik dominated the striking exchanges with 140 vs 27 total strikes, 127 vs 22 significant strikes, 59.1% vs 32.4% accuracy. Jairzinho Rozenstruik capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Shamil Gaziev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 4:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 118 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik did not secure a significant ground advantage against Shamil Gaziev on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Shamil Gaziev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 295 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 279 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik demonstrated standard activity with 295 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jairzinho Rozenstruik capitalized on this activity level, while Shamil Gaziev's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Shamil Gaziev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 117 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shamil Gaziev is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Shamil Gaziev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 073 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

