November 10, 2017
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Collier | Marcel Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 010 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Jake Collier's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jake Collier for the expected result. Had Marcel Fortuna pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jake Collier | Marcel Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Collier | Marcel Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 040 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Jake Collier earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jake Collier | Marcel Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 94 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 247 | 140 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 124 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 034 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Jake Collier dominated the striking exchanges with 124 vs 65 total strikes, 94 vs 59 significant strikes. Jake Collier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Collier | Marcel Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:11 | 1:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 965 | 902 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Jake Collier controlled Marcel Fortuna on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:11 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Collier | Marcel Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 128 |
| Activity ELO | 1 028 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Jake Collier demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jake Collier capitalized on this activity level, while Marcel Fortuna's 128-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Collier | Marcel Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 008 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Jake Collier started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcel Fortuna is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Collier | Marcel Fortuna |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.