September 16, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jake Shields |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 149 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Jake Ellenberger's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jake Ellenberger for the expected result. Had Jake Shields pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jake Shields |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 085 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jake Shields |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:53 | 0:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 261 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -21 |
Jake Ellenberger secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:53 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jake Shields |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 317 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Jake Ellenberger controlled the striking exchanges with 9 vs 1 significant strikes, 56.3% vs 7.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jake Ellenberger capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jake Shields |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 298 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Jake Ellenberger landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jake Shields |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 174 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -14 |
Jake Ellenberger demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jake Ellenberger capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Shields's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jake Shields |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 121 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -17 |
Jake Ellenberger continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Jake Shields's now at 0.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jake Shields |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 085 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.