October 4, 2012
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jay Hieron |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 176 | 903 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Jake Ellenberger's 6-fight experience advantage (9 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jake Ellenberger for the expected result. Had Jay Hieron pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jay Hieron |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 102 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jay Hieron |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 283 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Jake Ellenberger earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jay Hieron |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 81 | 127 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 250 | 859 |
| ELO Change | +4 | -4 |
Jay Hieron controlled the striking through superior volume (43 vs 27 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (32 vs 25). However, since Jay Hieron lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jake Ellenberger's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jay Hieron |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:05 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 338 | 939 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Jake Ellenberger controlled Jay Hieron on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:05 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jay Hieron |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 2 559 |
| Activity ELO | 1 223 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -8 |
Jake Ellenberger demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jake Ellenberger capitalized on this activity level, while Jay Hieron's 2559-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jay Hieron |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 169 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -10 |
Jake Ellenberger started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jay Hieron is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Jay Hieron |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 102 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.