November 14, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 131 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +49 |
Kelvin Gastelum overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jake Ellenberger.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 057 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:46 | 4:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 252 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +96 |
Kelvin Gastelum earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:46, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 164 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Kelvin Gastelum edged the striking exchanges with 16 vs 10 significant strikes. Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 1:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 146 | 1 383 |
| ELO Change | -145 | +145 |
Kelvin Gastelum dominated Jake Ellenberger on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:56 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 187 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +49 |
Kelvin Gastelum demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Ellenberger's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 119 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +44 |
Kelvin Gastelum continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Jake Ellenberger's now at 0.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 057 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.