July 29, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 22 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 153 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -36 |
Jake Ellenberger overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (17 vs 22 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Brown.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 061 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:46 | 1:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 371 | 1 351 |
| ELO Change | +153 | -64 |
Jake Ellenberger earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:46, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 329 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | +264 | -264 |
Jake Ellenberger dominated the striking exchanges with 29 vs 7 total strikes, 21 vs 7 significant strikes, 61.8% vs 41.2% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Jake Ellenberger capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:41 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 181 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
Jake Ellenberger landed 2 knockdowns followed by 14 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 227 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -27 |
Jake Ellenberger demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jake Ellenberger capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 122 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -26 |
Jake Ellenberger started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.