May 23, 2014
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 163 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +36 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (12 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 078 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:06 | 3:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 310 | 1 368 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +108 |
Robbie Lawler gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 68 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 155 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 206 | 1 411 |
| ELO Change | -115 | +115 |
Robbie Lawler controlled the striking exchanges with 72 vs 30 total strikes, 68 vs 29 significant strikes, 43.9% vs 32.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Robbie Lawler capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:46 | 1:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 291 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Robbie Lawler landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 301 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 212 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +72 |
Robbie Lawler demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Robbie Lawler capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Ellenberger's 301-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 142 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +28 |
Robbie Lawler started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake Ellenberger is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 078 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.