July 26, 2013
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 187 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +42 |
Rory MacDonald overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jake Ellenberger.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 101 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 364 | 1 384 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Rory MacDonald earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 46 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 97 | 118 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 321 | 1 354 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Rory MacDonald controlled the striking exchanges with 48 vs 27 total strikes, 46 vs 19 significant strikes, 39.0% vs 19.6% accuracy. Rory MacDonald capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 362 | 1 370 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Rory MacDonald did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jake Ellenberger on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 236 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +34 |
Rory MacDonald demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rory MacDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Ellenberger's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 167 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +48 |
Rory MacDonald continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Jake Ellenberger's now at 0.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 101 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.