April 29, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Sean Pierson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 119 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Jake Ellenberger's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jake Ellenberger for the expected result. Had Sean Pierson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Sean Pierson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 067 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Sean Pierson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:42 | 2:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 205 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -34 |
Jake Ellenberger earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:42, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Sean Pierson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 19 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 255 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +108 | -108 |
Jake Ellenberger controlled the striking exchanges with 9 vs 3 significant strikes, 47.4% vs 21.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jake Ellenberger capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Sean Pierson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 271 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Sean Pierson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 145 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -17 |
Jake Ellenberger demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jake Ellenberger capitalized on this activity level, while Sean Pierson's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Sean Pierson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 088 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -19 |
Jake Ellenberger extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sean Pierson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Sean Pierson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 067 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.