July 11, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 143 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +54 |
Stephen Thompson overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jake Ellenberger.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:29 | 4:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 284 | 1 379 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +105 |
Stephen Thompson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:29, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 14 | 35 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 096 | 1 417 |
| ELO Change | -86 | +86 |
Stephen Thompson dominated the striking exchanges with 20 vs 5 significant strikes, 57.1% vs 35.7% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Stephen Thompson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 1:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 132 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Stephen Thompson landed 2 knockdowns followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 288 |
| Activity ELO | 1 225 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Stephen Thompson demonstrated standard activity with 288 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Stephen Thompson capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Ellenberger's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 120 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +44 |
Stephen Thompson continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Jake Ellenberger's now at 0.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

