January 29, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 105 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +71 |
Tarec Saffiedine overcame a 13-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jake Ellenberger.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 036 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 218 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Tarec Saffiedine earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 99 | 131 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 065 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Tarec Saffiedine controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 30 significant strikes, 41.2% vs 30.3% accuracy. Tarec Saffiedine capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:54 | 1:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 106 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Tarec Saffiedine did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jake Ellenberger on the ground with 1:01 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 484 |
| Activity ELO | 1 193 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +29 |
Tarec Saffiedine demonstrated extended layoff with 484 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Tarec Saffiedine capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Ellenberger's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 093 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +30 |
Tarec Saffiedine started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake Ellenberger is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Ellenberger | Tarec Saffiedine |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 035 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.