March 1, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Hecht | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 049 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
TJ Waldburger's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding TJ Waldburger for the expected result. Had Jake Hecht pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jake Hecht | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Hecht | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:55 | 0:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 067 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +98 |
TJ Waldburger locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:55 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Jake Hecht | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 3 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 048 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
TJ Waldburger slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 100.0% vs 40.0% accuracy. TJ Waldburger capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Hecht | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 997 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jake Hecht | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 83 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 006 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +35 |
TJ Waldburger demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, TJ Waldburger capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Hecht's 83-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Hecht | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
TJ Waldburger extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake Hecht is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Hecht | TJ Waldburger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

