March 18, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 098 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -26 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 062 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:45 | 4:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 183 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -52 |
Jake Matthews earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:45, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Johnny Case was submitted.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 114 | 100 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 117 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Jake Matthews slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Jake Matthews capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:14 | 3:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 274 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Jake Matthews edged out Johnny Case on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:14 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 117 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -25 |
Jake Matthews demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jake Matthews capitalized on this activity level, while Johnny Case's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 076 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -24 |
Jake Matthews extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Johnny Case is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 062 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.