July 7, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 067 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Kevin Lee's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kevin Lee for the expected result. Had Jake Matthews pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:06 | 4:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 136 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +101 |
Kevin Lee earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:06, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 38 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 983 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -134 | +134 |
Kevin Lee controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 5 total strikes, 24 vs 5 significant strikes, 63.2% vs 38.5% accuracy. Kevin Lee capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 20 |
| Ground ELO | 1 198 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Kevin Lee controlled Jake Matthews on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:35 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 111 | 76 |
| Activity ELO | 1 098 | 1 212 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +56 |
Kevin Lee demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 76 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Kevin Lee capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Matthews's 111-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 055 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Kevin Lee extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake Matthews is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.