December 16, 2022
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 157 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +72 |
Matthew Semelsberger overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jake Matthews.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 079 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 246 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Matthew Semelsberger earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 116 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 74 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 3 |
| Striking ELO | 1 129 | 1 327 |
| ELO Change | -162 | +162 |
Matthew Semelsberger dominated the striking exchanges with 54 vs 74 total strikes, 45 vs 32 significant strikes, including 3 devastating knockdowns. Matthew Semelsberger capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:42 | 4:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 085 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Matthew Semelsberger landed 3 knockdowns followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 187 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +56 |
Matthew Semelsberger demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matthew Semelsberger capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Matthews's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 111 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +29 |
Matthew Semelsberger started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake Matthews is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Matthew Semelsberger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 079 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.