November 17, 2023
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 15 | -15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 144 | 1 244 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +62 |
Michael Morales overcame a 15-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 19 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jake Matthews.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 072 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 225 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Michael Morales earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 84 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 149 | 208 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 84 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 131 | 1 289 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Michael Morales controlled the striking exchanges with 84 vs 57 total strikes, 84 vs 57 significant strikes. Michael Morales capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 140 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 113 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 172 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +56 |
Michael Morales demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Michael Morales capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Matthews's 113-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 103 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +33 |
Michael Morales extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake Matthews is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Michael Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 072 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.