Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny

September 27, 2025

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1174
(-34)
Jake Matthews
Winner: Neil Magny
Submission
Round 3 • 3:08

C-ELO Evolution

Jake Matthews-34
Neil Magny+44
1274
(+44)
Neil Magny

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Jake Matthews: -31Neil Magny: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricJake MatthewsNeil Magny
Total UFC Fights2336
Experience Gap-1313
Experience ELO1 1831 254
ELO Change-31+31
💡

What Happened

Neil Magny's 13-fight experience advantage (36 vs 23 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Neil Magny for the expected result. Had Jake Matthews pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Jake Matthews: -20Neil Magny: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricJake MatthewsNeil Magny
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1021 158
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Jake Matthews: -39Neil Magny: +58

Performance Statistics

MetricJake MatthewsNeil Magny
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish3:083:08
Win Type ELO1 3311 454
ELO Change-39+58
💡

What Happened

Neil Magny earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:08, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jake Matthews was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Jake Matthews: -43Neil Magny: +43

Performance Statistics

MetricJake MatthewsNeil Magny
Significant Strikes Landed1831
Significant Strikes Attempted4457
Total Strikes Landed2873
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 1781 248
ELO Change-43+43
💡

What Happened

Neil Magny controlled the striking exchanges with 73 vs 28 total strikes, 31 vs 18 significant strikes, 54.4% vs 40.9% accuracy. Neil Magny capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Jake Matthews: -93Neil Magny: +93

Performance Statistics

MetricJake MatthewsNeil Magny
Takedowns Landed03
Takedowns Attempted15
Ground Control Time4:432:46
Ground Strikes Landed10
Ground ELO1 1311 257
ELO Change-93+93
💡

What Happened

Neil Magny controlled Jake Matthews on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 2:46 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Jake Matthews: -12Neil Magny: +62

Performance Statistics

MetricJake MatthewsNeil Magny
Days Since Last Fight7756
Activity ELO1 2191 444
ELO Change-12+62
💡

What Happened

Neil Magny demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 56 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Neil Magny capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Matthews's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Jake Matthews: -18Neil Magny: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricJake MatthewsNeil Magny
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO1 1431 225
ELO Change-18+22
💡

What Happened

Neil Magny extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake Matthews is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Jake Matthews: -20Neil Magny: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricJake MatthewsNeil Magny
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1021 152
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.