May 31, 2024
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Phil Rowe |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 14 | -14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 171 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Jake Matthews's 14-fight experience advantage (20 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jake Matthews for the expected result. Had Phil Rowe pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Phil Rowe |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 090 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Phil Rowe |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 270 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Jake Matthews earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Phil Rowe |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 66 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 164 | 104 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 89 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 173 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Jake Matthews controlled the striking exchanges with 89 vs 40 total strikes, 66 vs 34 significant strikes. Jake Matthews capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Phil Rowe |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:04 | 1:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 179 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Jake Matthews controlled Phil Rowe on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:04 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Phil Rowe |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 196 | 343 |
| Activity ELO | 1 191 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Jake Matthews demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jake Matthews capitalized on this activity level, while Phil Rowe's 343-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Phil Rowe |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 123 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Jake Matthews started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Phil Rowe is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jake Matthews | Phil Rowe |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 090 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.