April 12, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jalin Turner | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 144 | 1 270 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Renato Moicano's 4-fight experience advantage (16 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Renato Moicano for the expected result. Had Jalin Turner pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jalin Turner | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 051 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jalin Turner | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:11 | 4:11 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 406 | 1 475 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +108 |
Renato Moicano gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jalin Turner | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 251 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -144 | +144 |
Renato Moicano dominated the striking exchanges with 87 vs 16 total strikes, 36 vs 16 significant strikes, 53.7% vs 40.0% accuracy. Renato Moicano capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jalin Turner | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 5:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 24 |
| Ground ELO | 1 197 | 1 395 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Renato Moicano controlled Jalin Turner on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:50 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jalin Turner | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 171 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +62 |
Renato Moicano demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Renato Moicano capitalized on this activity level, while Jalin Turner's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jalin Turner | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 094 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Renato Moicano extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jalin Turner is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jalin Turner | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 050 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.