June 21, 2025
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 222 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Khalil Rountree Jr.'s 6-fight experience advantage (17 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Khalil Rountree Jr. for the expected result. Had Jamahal Hill pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 114 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 422 | 1 492 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Khalil Rountree Jr. earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 69 | 102 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 172 | 181 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 102 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 159 | 1 391 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Khalil Rountree Jr. controlled the striking exchanges with 102 vs 70 total strikes, 102 vs 69 significant strikes, 56.4% vs 40.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Khalil Rountree Jr. capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 119 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 1 211 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +28 |
Khalil Rountree Jr. demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Khalil Rountree Jr. capitalized on this activity level, while Jamahal Hill's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 094 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Khalil Rountree Jr. started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jamahal Hill is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Khalil Rountree Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.