June 11, 2021
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 116 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Paul Craig's 8-fight experience advantage (12 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Craig for the expected result. Had Jamahal Hill pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:59 | 1:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 166 | 1 373 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +70 |
Paul Craig earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:59, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 016 | 1 280 |
| ELO Change | -133 | +133 |
Paul Craig controlled the striking exchanges with 43 vs 3 total strikes, 23 vs 1 significant strikes, 92.0% vs 12.5% accuracy. Paul Craig capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:53 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 1 019 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Paul Craig controlled Jamahal Hill on the ground with 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 1 048 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Paul Craig demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Paul Craig capitalized on this activity level, while Jamahal Hill's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 031 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Paul Craig extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jamahal Hill is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jamahal Hill | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

