February 2, 2024
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jamal Pogues | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 024 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Jamal Pogues's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jamal Pogues for the expected result. Had Thomas Petersen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jamal Pogues | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jamal Pogues | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 038 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Jamal Pogues earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Jamal Pogues | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 65 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 124 | 86 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 116 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 993 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Thomas Petersen controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (116 vs 66 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (58 vs 65), superior accuracy (67.4% vs 52.4%). However, since Thomas Petersen lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jamal Pogues's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jamal Pogues | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 2:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 049 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Jamal Pogues did not secure a significant ground advantage against Thomas Petersen on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Jamal Pogues | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 197 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 025 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Jamal Pogues demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jamal Pogues capitalized on this activity level, while Thomas Petersen's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jamal Pogues | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Jamal Pogues started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thomas Petersen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jamal Pogues | Thomas Petersen |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

