May 23, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | James Krause | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 131 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -27 |
James Krause overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jamie Varner.
| Metric | James Krause | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | James Krause | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 154 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | +109 | -51 |
James Krause earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 5:00, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | James Krause | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 089 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +118 | -118 |
James Krause controlled the striking exchanges with 32 vs 9 total strikes, 22 vs 7 significant strikes, 43.1% vs 23.3% accuracy. James Krause capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | James Krause | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:18 | 0:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 084 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
James Krause slightly outworked Jamie Varner on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:18 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | James Krause | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 199 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 038 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -24 |
James Krause demonstrated standard activity with 199 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, James Krause capitalized on this activity level, while Jamie Varner's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | James Krause | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
James Krause started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jamie Varner is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | James Krause | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.