November 15, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | James Krause | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 224 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -26 |
James Krause overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (11 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Sergio Moraes.
| Metric | James Krause | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 106 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | James Krause | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:19 | 4:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 383 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -28 |
James Krause gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | James Krause | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 102 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 174 | 99 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 125 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 3 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 273 | 899 |
| ELO Change | +76 | -76 |
James Krause dominated the striking exchanges with 125 vs 42 total strikes, 102 vs 41 significant strikes, 58.6% vs 41.4% accuracy, including 3 devastating knockdowns. James Krause capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | James Krause | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:11 | 2:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 219 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
James Krause landed 3 knockdowns followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | James Krause | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 449 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 163 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -22 |
James Krause demonstrated extended layoff with 449 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, James Krause capitalized on this activity level, while Sergio Moraes's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | James Krause | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 6 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 175 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -19 |
James Krause continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Sergio Moraes's now at 0.
| Metric | James Krause | Sergio Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 106 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.