February 20, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | James Krause | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 123 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
James Krause's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding James Krause for the expected result. Had Shane Campbell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | James Krause | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 027 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | James Krause | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 212 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
James Krause earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | James Krause | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 82 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 111 | 129 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 106 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 075 | 947 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Shane Campbell controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (106 vs 55 total strikes), significant strike advantage (82 vs 47), superior accuracy (63.6% vs 42.3%). However, since Shane Campbell lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. James Krause's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | James Krause | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:42 | 3:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 100 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
James Krause edged out Shane Campbell on the ground with 2 takedowns, 5:42 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | James Krause | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 212 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 083 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
James Krause demonstrated standard activity with 212 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, James Krause capitalized on this activity level, while Shane Campbell's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | James Krause | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 040 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
James Krause extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shane Campbell is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | James Krause | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 027 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.