February 27, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | James Krause | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 058 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +51 |
Valmir Lazaro overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran James Krause.
| Metric | James Krause | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | James Krause | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 099 | 986 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Valmir Lazaro receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | James Krause | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 87 | 87 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 209 | 254 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 98 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 977 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since James Krause lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Valmir Lazaro's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | James Krause | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:42 | 0:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 017 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Valmir Lazaro did not secure a significant ground advantage against James Krause on the ground with 0:24 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | James Krause | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 999 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +29 |
Valmir Lazaro demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Valmir Lazaro capitalized on this activity level, while James Krause's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | James Krause | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 988 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Valmir Lazaro started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. James Krause is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | James Krause | Valmir Lazaro |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.