November 3, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | James Vick | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 237 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
James Vick's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding James Vick for the expected result. Had Joe Duffy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | James Vick | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 135 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | James Vick | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:59 | 4:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 404 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -30 |
James Vick gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | James Vick | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 42 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 137 | 66 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 270 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +97 | -97 |
James Vick controlled the striking exchanges with 42 vs 25 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. James Vick capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | James Vick | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 0:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 311 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
James Vick landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | James Vick | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 229 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -15 |
James Vick demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, James Vick capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Duffy's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | James Vick | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 174 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -16 |
James Vick extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Duffy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | James Vick | Joe Duffy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 135 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.